OpenAI 的领先优势正在快速缩小
评论认为 OpenAI 正面临多重危机：缺乏护城河导致市场领先地位下滑；最大投资者微软持续疏远，近期甚至公开考虑将主要产品外包给中国；亏损速度远超预期，年亏损额以 8 倍增长。华盛顿方面可能打压 Anthropic，但也可能反而帮助其崛起，而 Elon Musk 成为另一个潜在的竞标者。
Gary Marcus 这次拿出了市场份额和微软疏远的证据，比以往的情绪化唱衰更有说服力。如果你还相信 OpenAI 的地位不可动摇，这篇值得一看。
7:23 PM · Jun 16, 2026 · 6.03K Views
17 Replies · 5 Reposts · 52 Likes
As I predicted here in January 2024, with everybody building the same thing, there can be no moat:
That’s been catching to OpenAI ever since. The numbers don’t lie.
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And it’s not just the dwindling market share. Microsoft was for a long time OpenAI’s biggest backer, but they have increasingly backing away.
Today they apparently just distanced themselves even further:
When your biggest investor starts openly contemplating outsourcing your main product to China, it is what they call in business a strong negative signal.
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Sometimes of course bad things come in threes.
The third bad thing is that Ed Zitron just reported that OpenAI is burning money even faster than people thought:
You can’t multiply your losses every year by 8x (or even close) for very long.
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To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:
The American government’s primary aim may not have been to control foreign access to frontier AI models. Instead, it appears to have used export controls as a convenient way to target Anthropic econ.st/4uBDO0m Photo: Bloomberg via Getty Images
10:00 PM · Jun 14, 2026 · 49.3K Views
17 Replies · 52 Reposts · 175 Likes
But if Washington doesn’t succeed in killing of Anthropic, and instead actually inadvertently helps them, as I joked here…
.. then I’ll stand by this set of predictions from two weeks ago…
… except to say that another dark horse bidder is Elon. Wouldn’t that be an interesting twist?
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来源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS） · garymarcus.substack.com